Tuesday has all of the featured action built around a 7-game slate, with a 7:20 p.m. first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Shota Imanaga and Luis Gill as the key arms to build around, while Toronto and the Nationals are the teams to target for stacks, along with the Coors Field Extravaganza.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 29
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Shota Imanaga (CHC at MIL)
Cubs at Brewers – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
$10,600 at DraftKings
$10,800 at FanDuel
$53 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Shota Imanaga as Wednesday’s ace, though he will have a tough act to follow after fellow rookie RHP Ben Brown tossed seven hitless innings with 10 strikeouts. To call Imanaga a rookie is technically correct, though he did pitch seven seasons as a professional in his native Japan.
Currently Imanaga is behind only RHP Zack Wheeler for the National League Cy Young Award odds and he is the odds on favorite for the National League Rookie of the Year. The 30-year-old has made nine starts this season, allowing five earned runs and three home runs, while recording 58 strikeouts in 53.2 innings. This works out to an 0.84 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, along with a 5-0 record.
Milwaukee is a good offense, ranking sixth in the league for runs, ninth in home runs and third in stolen bases. They do offer up the ninth most strikeouts and tonight’s projected lineup has five batters who have struck out at least 23% of the time against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last year. Advantage Imanaga.
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Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Gil (NYY at LAA)
Yankees at Angels – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$10,300 at DraftKings
$10,500 at FanDuel
$56 at Yahoo
This should be an intriguing slate with several aces, along with a Coors Field Extravaganza boasting an 11.5 projected game total. Last night the Angels put just two runs across the plate against LHP Nestor Cortes and now they will be dealing with a phenomenal right-handed hurler in Luis Gil.
Gil was the 12th ranked prospect in the New York farm system, but he had just 33.1 innings under his belt in The Show, before needing Tommy John surgery, which cost him all of last year, save for four late-season innings in Single-A. This year Gil has been outstanding with 11.39 strikeouts per innings, but he also has walk issues, allowing 4.72 per nine innings. That is a terrifying rate and making it even more scary is that it is in line with the season long projections from ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc. Danger is also lurking as the soon-to-be 26-year-old also has allowed only three home runs this season in 55.1 innings, which is less than half of what was expected based on his overall profile. Of course that could be wrong and it is still a small sample size, plus his underlying 2.78 ERA and 3.55 xFIP are strong.
Anaheim has some pop, with the 5th most home runs and 10th most total bases, but they are in the middle of the pack for runs scored and in the bottom-third of the league when it comes to strikeouts. Catcher Max Stassi did return from injury, but starters Mike Trout, Brandon Drury and Anthony Rendon are all still out, as is stop-gap Shohei Ohtani fill-in Miguel Sano.
Tonight the Halos are expected to have three hitters in the lineup who strike out nearly one-third of the time against right-handed hurlers, while the team has a collective 25.7% strikeout rate since the start of last year. If Gil can continue to miss bats and limit extra-base hits, he should be in the mix for a quality start and at least half a dozen strikeouts.
Salary saving options tonight would be RHP Bailey Ober against the Kansas City Royals and wild card RHP Alek Manoah who gets to go against the equally perplexing White Sox in Chicago, where the awful version of the “irresistible force vs. the immovable object” is playing out in real life.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays at White Sox – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Flexen
DK Top Stack %: 10.1%
FD Top Stack %: 11.0%
It looks like the wheels have come off the wagon for RHP Chris Flexen. It was only a matter of time before he wore out his welcome with the White Sox, having pitched for three different franchises in the last calendar year.
RHP Mike Clevinger was slated to start against Toronto yesterday, but he went to the injured reserve with elbow inflammation, which should keep Flexen in the rotation for the next month, after that he could be designated for assignment if he does not right the ship. Over his last three outings, Flexen has lasted just 13.1 innings, with 14 earned runs and three round-trippers. This has left him saddled with a 9.45 ERA and a .339/.381/.559 triple slash line. Surprisingly he has 11 strikeouts, which is not usually a part of his game, but that is a slim silver lining at best.
Toronto is finally back on track in the runs column and while they had just three doubles yesterday, the seven runs were nice. Over the last 10 games, the Blue Jays now have 58 runs, which has them clearly out the doldrums that led to them jumping from the fourth fewest to 22nd overall in the league during this timeframe.
Rookie Davis Schneider has been amazing and he is now entrenched in the leadoff slot. On a side note, two of the three doubles yesterday were courtesy of his bat and in his last 205 plate-appearances against same-handed hurlers, he has a .356 wOBA and .198 ISO. Catcher Danny Jansen is another of the Toronto bats who have been carrying the team, along with Dalton Varsho.
Bo Bichette and Valdimir Guerrero Jr. are finally rounding into form, with George Springer showing signs of life at the plate as well. The team misses Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield, but veteran Kevin Kiermaier can still get it done in lefty-righty matchups and Isiah Kiner-Falefa is far from an easy out.
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Wild Card Target: Washington Nationals
Nationals at Braves – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach
DK Top Stack %: 7.3%
FD Top Stack %: 6.8%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool cannot avoid the Coors Field Extravaganza, with the game-time temperatures in the upper-70s and an 8-to-12 mph breeze out to right field. Toronto is the next obvious offense and with LHP Tyler Anderson pitching well, it makes spending on the Yankees bats tough. So for the first time this season, we are going with a Wild Card stack.
This may not be as crazy as it seems, but we will not know that for sure until the dust settles. Rookie RHP Spencer Schwellenbach is expected to get a spot-start, jumping up from Double-A. The former Nebraska Husker turns 24-years-old on Friday and he actually pitched for only one season in college. However, he was the starting shortstop for three seasons and he won the John Olerud Award as the best two-way player, after his junior year.
Shortly after that season, he ended up undergoing Tommy John surgery, which pushed back his minor league debut. This year he has 32 innings at High-A ball and another 13 at Double-A. The sample size is small and he projects to be a multi-inning reliever, with the expectation that he earns a role in the bullpen around the middle of next year.
Lane Thomas is back in action and he, along with All-Star caliber shortstop CJ Abrams and improving youngster Luis Garcia should be at the top of the order, along with veteran Eddie “Remember Me?!” Rosario. That concentrated group is what we are going after for maximum synergy with the hopes the craft one big inning against Schwellenbach. Atlanta has a good bullpen, so any rallies by the Nationals are likely to be short lived, but the salary savings and differentiation are crucial on this slate.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Donovan Solano is jumping up in the OddsShopper model with the under on his 1.5 total base prop. The -170 wager is currently available at Fanatics.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -202 “true odds,” so the -170 line brings a strong 6.3% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with sharp book Unibet and BetRivers offering -235 and -240 lines. Be a savvy shopper!
Solano will be facing LHP Braxton Garrett, and while he will have the platoon-advantage against the southpaw, Garrett is coming off a superb showing in Arizona, logging a complete game shut out. Garrett is a good pitcher, who is working his way back from injuries. Solano is in his 11th season in the league, having spent his first four with Miami, before playing his trade with the Yankees, Giants, Reds, Twins and now the Padres. The journeyman projects for 1.28 total bases today, which is why there is the heavy “juice” on the under by the books. Still, the 67% probability that he falls below two total bases, makes this a strong play on a long term time horizon.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Wednesday, May 29
The Midwest is a mess again, with Cincinnati and the doubleheader in Detroit at risk. Baltimore also has localized storms, but there is a path to a clear game window if things continue on track with the current forecast. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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