Hollinger’s 2023 NBA Mock Draft: Will trades make a mockery of it?
Well, there’s a reason they call it a mock draft. With all the picks that are reportedly on the market (basically, all the ones between No. 2 and No. 5
heading into Thursday’s NBA Draft, my attempt at projecting this event may truly devolve into a mockery. Print this out and openly laugh at it on Friday morning. The only thing I feel relatively assured about is that the team picking at No. 1 will not be trading down.
Beyond that? The draft starts getting funky as early as the second pick, where there is still no clear favorite for the Charlotte Hornets’ selection and the possibility of them trading the pick looms large. From there, everyone in the top five would trade their pick if the right deal came along, and everyone behind them is either trying to move up with multiple picks (starting with Orlando at picks No. 6 and No. 11), trying to maneuver the pick to help their roster (Hi, Dallas. What up, New Orleans?) or working on other roster schemes that could drag in the draft pick (Washington, Atlanta and darn near everyone in the back half of the first round).
Those are just the teams that have actual picks, but we also keep hearing about teams without selections who are trying to get in. Denver, most prominently, but also Boston and Milwaukee, and wait, don’t the Knicks make three trades on draft day every year?
With all that mayhem, what hope do I have of projecting this first round anywhere near correctly? Probably not much, but that’s never stopped me before. After making some calls, looking at front-office trend lines and a quick call to the Psychic Friends Network, here’s how I see the draft’s first 30 picks going. (Ages listed are as of draft night.)
1. San Antonio — Victor Wembanyama, 19, C, Metropolitans 92
This one still feels like a wild card. Who will the Spurs choose? Could we have another Smith-Banchero last-second switcheroo?
I bet this one plays out like that “Draft Day” movie where they don’t decide until the last minute. A month and a half after Spurs GM Brian Wright told me. “We have six weeks, and we have a lot of work to do,” the world remains on pins and needles waiting to see whom the Spurs pick. Despite San Antonio’s steadfast refusal to tip its hand, I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Spurs take unheralded sleeper Victor Wembanyama.
In all seriousness, he’s a can’t miss All-Star for as long as he can stay on the court. As I noted here, the only question about Wembanyama is whether he’s too tall to have an extended career.
2. Charlotte — Brandon Miller, 20, SF, Alabama
My reading of the tea leaves is that the Hornets have wanted Miller the whole time but need to keep some uncertainty on the table in case they can persuade somebody who wants Scoot Henderson to trade up with them. Miller obviously fits here better than Henderson, but drafting for fit this high on the board has burned many a team in the past … including the team that had the second pick and decided not to draft the Hornets’ outgoing owner.
One trade here that would make some sense is a three-way deal that sees the Hornets move down to No. 3 and receive the 14th pick from New Orleans, the Pelicans pick second and send Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valančiūnas to Portland and the Blazers send Jusuf Nurkić and Anfernee Simons to New Orleans. I don’t see great odds of that actually happening, and at the end of the day, I expect Charlotte to make the pick here.
3. Portland — Scoot Henderson, 19, PG, G League Ignite
The Blazers staying stuck in the Win It For Dame Twilight Zone remains one of the league’s most bizarre sub-plots. The obvious move for years now has been to trade Damian Lillard for a pile of assets and move forward, but the Blazers seem determined to learn absolutely nothing from the Bradley Beal Experience in Washington.
Instead, they’re watching a potentially Paul Georgian trade return steadily shrivel while they pursue another year of competing for the first 60 games and tanking the last 20. Maybe they’ll wait a couple more years, until Lillard is 35 and has two years left at $60 million a pop, then trade him for two seconds and the rights to the fourth-best player in the Greek second division.
Anyway … the Blazers seem to be determined to trade this pick if a star becomes available, but the right deal doesn’t appear to be on the table. Thus, the more likely end game is Portland taking whomever is left between Henderson and Miller. If it’s Henderson, Simons becomes even more expendable than he already is.
Ironically, using the pick might be the thing that pushes Lillard to demand a trade instead of continuing whatever this little passive-aggressive dance is right now, which ultimately would be the best thing for all parties.
4. Houston — Amen Thompson, 20, SF, Overtime Elite
With the top three off the board and not a ton of traction on trade scenarios, the Rockets would likely go with the highest upside athlete and take Thompson. The likely clincher on this pick for Houston is Thompson’s ability to play the point, which would allow the Rockets to move Kevin Porter Jr. off the ball.
Cam Whitmore is the other name you hear here, but Whitmore seems to be in a bit of a slide if he isn’t in the fourth pick. If that’s the case, the Rockets could trade down if he is their guy.
5. Detroit — Jarace Walker, 19, PF, Houston
I keep hearing Walker and Ausar Thompson here, both of which are somewhat odd fits with the current roster, but maybe there are other roster moves on the table for Detroit. (Amen Thompson, incidentally, is likely the pick if he gets past Houston.) To be clear, Detroit shouldn’t be drafting for fit with the current roster anyway, because the current roster stinks and the Pistons need to upgrade the overall talent level.
Or maybe it’s the greatest smoke screen ever. Whitmore seems to be a much cleaner fit here, but Detroit seems to have cooled on him, and I’m not sure he has a certain landing spot in the top eight. Could they trade down to No. 9 and still get Whitmore? For that matter, if Walker is the Pistons’ choice, could they trade down to No. 7 and still get him? Detroit has a lot of potential options, but ultimately, the most likely end game is keeping the pick and going best player available.
That said, I might find a trade down with Indiana for Nos. 7, 26 and 32 awfully tempting.
6. Orlando — Ausar Thompson, 20, SF, Overtime Elite
The Magic, as we now all know, are not prone to tipping their hand. The move that makes the most sense for them is trying to package pick Nos. 6 and 11 to move into the top three and take Henderson. Alas, I don’t see that one happening. If Orlando stays put at No. 6, Ausar Thompson is a true wing whose shot is more functional than his brother’s, so he can play an off-ball role and guard twos and threes, which likely fits this roster. Anthony Black is also tempting here, but another non-shooter in the backcourt might break this team.
The other guy I’ve been told to watch is Taylor Hendricks; the local pull of a UCF-kid-made-good may be hard to ignore. Sure, that overcrowds the Magic with big forwards, but Orlando loves long athletes, and it can figure out the rest of the roster down the line.
7. Indiana — Taylor Hendricks, 19, PF, Central Florida
Given the Pacers’ open sore at power forward and that two fours are projected inside the top 10, the most likely scenario to me is Indiana taking whomever is left between Hendricks and Walker. Walker seems to be higher on most team’s draft boards, but I’ve heard Hendricks looked awesome in workouts, and his shooting may be easier to fit into a roster from the word go.
The Pacers have generated a lot of chatter as a team that is looking to move up and have picks No. 26, No. 29 and No. 32 to put in a package, but it seems moving up from No. 7 will be exceedingly difficult.
8. Washington — Anthony Black, 19, PG, Arkansas
A new front office in Washington will attempt to break through on a problem that has vexed the Wizards for the last decade, since grabbing Otto Porter at No. 3 in 2013: Failing to find starting-caliber players with mid- and late-lottery picks.
The Oklahoma City DNA of this group might lead it to take a leap of faith on undeveloped long arms and tools, but there isn’t really a guy like that who makes sense at No. 8. Also, with the two Thompsons off the board, it makes a lot of sense to pivot to Black, a big, smart guard who can really defend and has Jason Kidd-type upside.
Speaking of Oklahoma City, watch the Thunder here, who could make a bowl-you-over offer to Washington to move up from No. 12 if the right player slides.
9. Utah — Cam Whitmore, 18, SF, Villanova
When you have the ninth pick in a draft where there is a consensus on the top nine, your work is greatly simplified. The Jazz could look to move up and package this pick with their selections at No. 16 and/or No. 28, but with seemingly little traction on teams ahead of them moving down, they could also sit tight and take what the draft gives them. They’d probably prefer to take a guard here, but Whitmore fits well enough with the roster positionally that he shouldn’t cause any major problems.
As far as trades, I could definitely see Utah making some deals as draft night goes on, but it seems to me Utah is more likely to package the latter two picks to either move up or move bodies.
The other name to watch here is Kobe Bufkin, especially when one combines his rise up draft boards with the word that Utah has made Collin Sexton available.
10. Dallas — Dereck Lively II, 19, C, Duke
Welcome to the pivot point of the draft. With a broad consensus on the best nine players, this feels like the point where things could get wacky. The crazy potential doubles because the Mavs have this pick and probably would prefer to use it as trade bait.
However, the prospect of Lively being here could be enough to tempt Dallas. He offers the Mavs a potential Tyson Chandler clone who can rim run next to Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving and protect the rim from all the blow-bys they surrender. The Mavs might also decide to see if they feel lucky, trade down and maybe still nab Lively.
That’s the tricky part, because if it’s not Dallas here, I’m not sure of the other suspects who would value a center. In that case, I would say a late riser like Kobe Bufkin or Bilal Coulibaly would be the pick here.
11. Orlando — Kobe Bufkin, 19, PG/SG, Michigan
For a long time, I had been thinking Orlando’s need for shooting would tilt it toward taking Gradey ****, but I was thinking like me and not like the Orlando Magic. Based on how this team has valued length and athleticism in past drafts, I’m now pivoting toward Bufkin. Coulibaly is another potential wild card here who would fit Orlando’s prototype.
Given that this is Orlando’s second pick in the first round, it could also end up in a whole lot of other scenarios that see the Magic either move down or out for some more immediate help. Bufkin would be a likely target for a trade-up team too.
12. Oklahoma City — Bilal Coulibaly, 18, SF, Metropolitans 92
Coulibaly rose up draft boards during his team’s run to the French League finals and fits a type the Thunder have historically been unable to resist. That team president Sam Presti attended one of his recent games is also notable, although I wouldn’t run too far with this. Execs are typically making the rounds through Europe in the spring, and in my time in the front office, I attended plenty of games involving players who didn’t interest us at all. There’s at least a chance there’s nothing to see here.
Coulibaly is also an upgrade on the most Thundery move possible, which would be to take Rayan Rupert, as he offers a similar wing athlete profile with a bit more actual production in games.
13. Toronto — Keyonte George, 19, SG, Baylor
I’m not a big believer in George, but this is the name I’m hearing for Toronto. It should be noted that the Raptors have yet to officially decide if they’re coming or going, and little rumor sprinkles keep shaking out involving virtually everyone in Toronto, from Pascal Siakam to O.G. Anunoby to Dave Stieb. This is likely a continuation of the same fishing expedition we saw at the trade deadline, and at the end of it, I expect the Raptors to run it back with Fred VanVleet making $30 million a year or so and the team just a whisker below the tax apron.
If the Raptors are leaning into this roster, however, that would also imply that this pick might be in play for the right player. Packaging, say, Chris Boucher and this pick for a good guard has to be an interesting proposition for Toronto.
14. New Orleans — Gradey ****, 19, SF, Kansas
There’s been a lot of … interesting news coming out of New Orleans lately, especially if you follow social media accounts that you probably shouldn’t be following. However, the big-picture debates about Zion Williamson’s future and the team’s interest in Scoot Henderson are most likely dead ends as far as this Thursday night is concerned.
If the Pelicans pick at No. 14, they’d be tickled to get a movement shooter with some size into their system, as shooting has been a near-constant issue for New Orleans. I could also see the Pelicans warming to Lively as a rim-protecting five who can maybe hang out in the corner when Williamson rumbles to the rim, but I don’t have him making it to No. 14 in this mock.
15. Atlanta — Cason Wallace, 19, PG/SG, Kentucky
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: There’s a chance John Collins gets moved in a deal involving this pick. The Dallas trade rumor for the 10th pick is the hottest one, but there are other scenarios where the Hawks could dump the pick entirely, move down to take a smaller contract or move up to take a worse player (like the Dallas deal).
For the Hawks, the idea of getting a big combo guard who can play next to Trae Young but also take minutes as his backup has to be tempting, especially since Atlanta needs a Plan B if it can’t keep Dejounte Murray beyond this season. Bufkin would likely be the Hawks’ primary choice, but he’ll be long gone by No. 15. If so, it would likely come down to George (gone at No. 13 in this mock), Wallace or Jalen Hood-Schifino.
16. Utah — Jordan Hawkins, 21, SG, Connecticut
The Jazz need more shooting and more guards, especially if Jordan Clarkson doesn’t return. If Whitmore is really the pick at No. 9, then coming out of this with at least one real guard by taking Hawkins 16th would seem a logical plan, especially with the most alluring lead guards taken off the board between picks No. 9 and No. 16.
Again, the Jazz are going to be at the fulcrum of all kinds of trade talks with this pick, whether to swap it for a future pick, move up with pick No. 28, taking on money to move up or including a player like Sexton in a deal that also involves picks.
Another thing to watch: This is historically a spot where Danny Ainge has been known to come in from left field with a Terry Rozier or Guerschon Yabusele. This is where the draft might get crazy.
17. L.A. Lakers — Noah Clowney, 18, PF, Alabama
Klutch clients in the 2023 draft: Clowney, Lively, Chris Livingston. Lively won’t be here at No. 17, and Livingston will still be available at No. 47. So … how do we feel about Clowney, everyone?
This is probably a little higher than Clowney has been mocked, and he’s a bit further away from game-readiness than a win-now team like L.A. would prefer. But he fills a hole as a stretch big who can also play some five, especially as his body fills out. For what it’s worth, I have Clowney 15th on my board, so while I kid about the Klutch stuff, he actually might be the best value available here.
Also, the Lakers haven’t been afraid of taking long-term guys (witness Max Christie a year ago or Talen Horton-Tucker before that) even while pushing to max out the LeBron James years.
18. Miami — Jett Howard, 19, SF, Michigan
This one is partly a bet on family ties, given Juwan Howard’s long tenure with the Heat organization, and partly a bet on prototypes, as the Heat love them some movement shooters but are about to lose Max Strus to free agency and might end up trading Duncan Robinson.
The Heat could also put this pick in play — because when has Miami been afraid to trade a first? — but their hoped-for Damian Lillard end game sure as heck isn’t coming into play by draft night. Also, while Miami has been known to burn up the phones hunting big game in trades, the Heat historically have been a low-activity team on draft night, usually taking their pick where it lands.
19. Golden State — Jaime Jaquez Jr., 22, SF, UCLA
The one thing I’m consistently hearing is that there is absolutely, positively, no way in hell the Warriors are taking another speculative dart-throw on a teenager here. They are in win-now mode, and they saw what Christian Braun did for Denver this spring. The two names you hear for the Warriors are Jaquez and Kris Murray.
Trading the pick also seems unlikely, however, since the Warriors need cost-controlled contracts at the back end of their rotation. That’s where Jaquez comes in; his skill and basketball IQ would fit nicely in the Warriors’ system. He hasn’t been mocked this high, generally, but I have him firmly in my top 20.
Golden State could potentially double down on this strategy by trading down as well; for instance, swapping this pick for Indiana’s selections at Nos. 26 and 29, where they might land Jaquez and Murray.
20. Houston — Jalen Hood-Schifino, 20, PG, Indiana
The odds of this pick getting traded are extremely high, given that Houston already has too many young players on rookie contracts and that the Rockets are actually trying to win this year. Unlike the pick at No. 4, Houston is likelier to get what would be considered fair value here, so I’ll be surprised if the Rockets end up making this pick themselves.
Thus, consider this one a placeholder: Hood-Schifino is likely the highest-rated player left on most draft boards whom I haven’t found a home for yet, so some team might trade a future first to the Rockets on the clock with the intent of grabbing him here. I don’t think Hood-Schifino is a first-round talent, so I’m really interested to see where the league values him.
21. Brooklyn — Dariq Whitehead, 18, SF, Duke
The Nets have had little to no fear in drafting medical cases, which makes them a logical landing spot for Whitehead with one of their two picks. He was one of the most highly rated players coming out of high school but has had two foot surgeries in the last year. Both were done by Dr. Martin O’Malley … who also serves as team orthopedist to the Nets.
The Nets could also look to package Nos. 21 and 22 to move up but would likely get diminishing returns from a move into, say, the low teens. Their cap situation is also an argument for adding two low-cost contacts rather than one, helping them manage the luxury tax while they bide their time in post-James-Harden purgatory.
22. Brooklyn — Nick Smith Jr., 19, SG, Arkansas
Same song, different verse. Smith had a rough freshman year at Arkansas after coming into the year rated as a potential lottery pick, and he also missed time with knee problems. With their second pick, the Nets would likely feel OK about taking a big swing here and seeing if they can get Smith back to his former level.
I talked about Brooklyn packaging its two picks to move up, but the other option for the Nets would be to pick at No. 21 and then trade No. 22 to a playoff team for a future first. I expect Brooklyn’s phones to be busy on draft night.
23. Portland — Olivier-Maxence Prosper, 20, SF, Marquette
Portland’s history is that it will take the absolute biggest swing possible, but the potential for Dame Drama may tilt the Blazers a bit more toward practicality with this pick. The best balance on that might be to look at Prosper, a wing defender who might be playable immediately for a team that desperately needs size on the perimeter. (And in the middle, for that matter.)
The Blazers could take a bigger leap of faith on the same concept by taking Julian Phillips or Rayan Rupert, but they are more unready than Prosper. Portland is also likely to listen to offers for this pick, especially if it lands Henderson at No. 3 and can combine Simons and this pick to land a starting small forward. That’s more easily said than done, but it’s why teams spend draft week burning up the phones trying to see what’s possible.
24. Sacramento — Leonard Miller, 19, PF, G League Ignite
The temptation to take Kris Murray here will be strong, given the family connections, but that’s also a reason to go another direction. The skill overlap with his brother Keegan might result in diminishing returns on both. Sacramento has a size gap on its depth chart, with a lot of smaller wings but only free agent Harrison Barnes as a true four.
Miller starts looking like an increasingly compelling value here as well, coming off a strong season in the G League. This is one of the few picks where I haven’t heard a ton of trade chatter, so I would bet on the Kings using it.
25. Memphis — Colby Jones, 21, SG, Xavier
The Grizzlies have a roster crunch that could lead them to either select a stash pick like James Nnaji or trading out to get a future pick, perhaps with Denver (see Indiana note). However, I think the Grizzlies like grabbing young guys on cost-controlled deals and will worry about the roster stuff later. (While we’re here: Memphis has traded up for every draft pick in Zach Kleiman’s tenure except the Ja Morant pick. There is a decent chance Memphis gives up picks No. 45 and No. 25 to move up to, say, 22.)
If the Grizzlies are the ones picking, Jones checks every box for a stereotypical Memphis pick: a high-character upperclassman favored by analytics models with a strong, physical frame. Memphis will be generally active on the trade market heading into July, but I’m not sure any of its actions will significantly impact the draft itself.
26. Indiana — Ben Sheppard, 21, SG, Belmont
The Pacers are shopping their picks at Nos. 26, 29 and 32 to move up, but another angle would be to move out. The obvious trade partner here would be the Denver Nuggets, who could send them the 2024 first they got from Oklahoma City (the least favorable of the Thunder’s four picks) in return for this choice in 2023.
If the Pacers pick here, Sheppard checks a lot of boxes for what they have tended to draft in the past, as a high-achieving college player who showed well in the NBA Draft Combine. There is some overlap between his skill set and the current roster, as the Pacers would probably love to draft a 6-foot-8 guy here and could look at somebody such as Phillips or Rupert, but I suspect Sheppard grades out better on most boards.
27. Charlotte — Brandon Podziemski, 20, SG, Santa Clara
A quick scan for Duke and North Carolina players reveals that Whitehead and Lively are already off the board and nobody else is on the radar for this spot. So the Hornets will have to go out of their comfort zone. (Fear not, fellas; you can still cone back in the second round for Leaky Black.) Podziemski won over a lot of observers at the draft combine who were concerned about his size and ability to get separation at the next level, and the Hornets will be hunting for backcourt depth — especially if they trade Terry Rozier, as has been rumored in some quarters.
28. Utah — Brice Sensabaugh, 19, SF, Ohio State
If the Jazz end up using all three first-round picks, they’re likely to go best-player-available with the third one, trying to hit on the upside play of Sensabaugh turning into a Mark Aguirre-type power scorer. If another team trades in, Sensabaugh still might be the best player to target, so by this point, I think somebody will jump in to grab him.
29. Indiana — Kris Murray, 22, SF, Iowa
I think Indiana would be tickled to see a big wing with some skill still left on the board when this pick comes up, if they still own it by that point. If not, the demand for skilled, tall wings in general in this league is such that I would be a bit surprised to see Murray fall out of the top 30 picks, so he serves as a good placeholder here.
30. LA Clippers — James Nnaji, 18, C, FC Barcelona
The Clippers love drafting centers, often to their detriment, but in this case, the logic behind it is pretty solid. LA can stash him in Europe for a year, avoiding the roster crunch of this season’s crowd, and then starting him on a cost-controlled deal a year from now when the new CBA really starts sinking its teeth into free-spending teams like the Clips.
